Mental Habits: Taking the Shortcut (Part 4)

In this series of posts, I consider thinking habits that I call “mental shortcuts.” It's probably a good idea to read the previous three posts before reading this one (see links on sidebar).

Hold on a Second! (Again!)

Why I am showing you how shortcuts can lead to errors when they are supposed to help you get through life?

The Role of Demonstrations

That is how researchers prove that we use mental shortcuts. They set up demonstrations. The demonstrations are set up so that formal reasoning produces one answer and a mental shortcut produces another. In this way, researchers can show that we often use mental shortcuts and not formal reasoning. I am not saying that we never use formal reasoning. We do. I will have more to say about the use of formal reasoning in a future post.

Let’s consider the die-rolling example. If you were using formal reasoning you would see that that Sequence Two (GRGRRR) contains Sequence One (RGRRR). And so you would rate Sequence One as more likely than Sequence Two. But Sequence Two is more representative of randomness. So, if you were using the representativeness shortcut, you would rate Sequence Two as more likely than Sequence One. And that is what you did. The same goes for the “Linda Problem.” If you were using formal reasoning, you would see that Linda being a bank teller is more likely than Linda being a feminist bank teller. But, if you were using the representativeness shortcut, you would think that the feminist bank teller option is more likely. The same goes for the availability shortcut. The shark attack and “r” problems are set up so that the shortcut leads to the wrong answer.

I demonstrated how the shortcuts work by using carefully crafted examples that made you make mistakes. But the shortcuts do not always lead to errors. In fact, we use them a lot of the time because they work a lot of the time.

Let’s consider the representativeness shortcut. It allows us to make decision based on appearances. That is good because appearances are often all that we have. Here are a couple of examples:

1. Let’s say that you just bought a cup of tea from a “high end” tea shop. The tea’s colour is normal and it smells great. You cannot be certain that the tea will taste good. It might taste awful. But, it is a good bet that it will be an enjoyable refreshment experience. On the other hand, if you bought the tea from the local greasy spoon and it has an odd colour, you are probably right to throw it away without taking a sip. In the first instance, but not in the second, the characteristics of the tea were representative of a good cup of tea.
   
   
2. You are out for your morning walk in the park. You see a large tree split in two with scorch marks on it. You know that there was a thunderstorm last night. You would not be out of your mind to conclude that a lightning strike caused the damage. After all, the damage looks like the damage that a lightning hit would cause. In other words, the damage is representative of a lightning strike. You might be wrong. Maybe somebody had an axe and some matches. But how likely is that?

Now consider the availability shortcut: I always seem to be in a hurry when I am at the video store. So, my viewing decisions are often made quickly. Let’s say that I am trying to decide which of two DVDs to rent. One has the actor Newby in it and the other has the actor Clark in it. What to do? I use my availability shortcut! I recall times that I enjoyed Newby’s movies and times that I enjoyed Clark’s movies. If it is easier for me to think of enjoyable Newby movies, then renting the Newby movie is a good idea. To be sure, I might be wrong. I certainly have been burned in the past. Sometimes Newby is in a real clunker. But I use the availability shortcut because it gives me decent answers enough of the time.

Forewarned is Forearmed

There is another reason that I used those demonstrations. It is good for you to know that using mental shortcuts can lead to bad decisions. Bad decisions can mean lost time, lost money, and a lower quality of life. So, next time you are making an important decision, take some time to reflect. Is representativeness or availability influencing you? You might decide to go with the shortcut. But it would probably be a good idea to spend some time thinking things through.

Maybe I should take my own advice. Let’s return to my car rental insurance example. I needed to make my decision quickly, so I used the availability shortcut. I quickly reflected on how safe the roads had been in the past few weeks. For some reason, images of crumpled side-panels and damaged bumpers leapt into my head. This ease of thought made me think that car accidents were extremely common. I took the insurance. Of course, I did not get into an accident. Score one for the rental company!